If this fragile process collapses, the fallout will not stay local. It will spill into energy prices, maritime routes, refugee flows and broader alignments. It could also impact India’s relations with both Israel and the Arab world.

A U.S. envoy said on Monday he was "unbelievably satisfied" with Lebanon's reply to a U.S. proposal on disarming Hezbollah, following meetings in Beirut held hours after Israel launched new air strikes and a cross-border incursion.